K-SALES MARKET INSIGHTS | OCTOBER 22, 2026
The international hazelnut market is entering the 2026/27 season with expectations of substantially higher production following the frost-related supply shortages of 2025.
According to the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC), global hazelnut production was initially forecast to increase by approximately 33% to 1.43 million metric tonnes on an in-shell basis, compared with 1.08 million tonnes in the previous season.
Including carryover stocks, global availability was projected at approximately 1.59 million tonnes, an increase of around 29%.
However, developments during the autumn harvest have raised questions about these early estimates. While production is recovering in several regions, adverse weather and disappointing kernel yields are reducing the quantity of marektable hazelnuts.
The international market is therefore increasingly characterised by differences between total harvest volumes and the actual availability of export-quality kernels.
Turkey: Larger Harvest, but Growing Quality Concerns
Turkey remains the world’s dominant producer and exporter of hazelnuts, supplying a substantial share of the raw material used by the international chocolate and confectionery industries.
The 2025/26 season was marked by severe spring frost, which caused major crop losses and contributed to exceptionally high hazelnut prices.
For 2026/27, the INC initially forecast Turkish production at approximately 810,000 metric tonnes, compared with 518,000 tonnes in the previous season.
However, more recent industry assessments have revised expectations downward.
In late September, Hazelnut Growers of Oregon reported that Turkish production might be closer to 700,000 tonnes, reflecting higher-than-expected proportions of empty nuts and quality problems in several growing regions.
An October 19 market report indicated even lower estimates of approximately 620,000–650,000 tonnes, although these figures remain preliminary and have not been confirmed as final national production.
Weather and Kernel Recovery
Persistent rainfall during harvesting and drying has affected several Turkish growing regions.
Market reports indicate increased sorting requirements, mould-related defects and damage associated with the brown marmorated stink bug.
Kernel recovery has become a particular concern. Some commercial lots reportedly yield less than 40% kernels, compared with the approximately 50% recovery commonly used as a reference for in-shell transactions.
Consequently, the increase in total production may not translate into a proportional increase in marketable kernels.
Price Developments
In August 2026, the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) announced its official purchasing prices:
- Giresun quality: TRY 255/kg
- Levant quality: TRY 250/kg
These prices are based on a 50% sound-kernel yield and include additional premiums for higher recoveries.
The new intervention prices represent an increase of approximately 28% in Turkish lira compared with the previous season.
Nevertheless, export quotations have declined from the exceptionally high levels reached during the supply shortage.
According to Commodity Board’s market report published on October 19, 2026, indicative offer prices for conventional Turkish hazelnut kernels (11–13 mm) stood at approximately EUR 7.62/kg for raw kernels and EUR 10.49/kg for roasted kernels, based on full-truckload deliveries DAP Central Europe. These figures represent market indications rather than confirmed transaction prices.
The development of Turkish hazelnut prices will remain closely linked to kernel recovery, government purchases, industrial demand and export activity.
United States: Strong Production in Oregon
The United States continues to strengthen its position as one of the world’s largest hazelnut-producing countries.
Commercial cultivation is concentrated in Oregon’s Willamette Valley, where favourable growing conditions and modern production systems have supported continued industry expansion.
The INC initially forecast US production at approximately 123,500 metric tonnes for 2026/27.
A later industry survey suggested a crop of approximately 130,400 metric tonnes, while Hazelnut Growers of Oregon published a more conservative estimate of around 123,000 tonnes.
Despite differences between these forecasts, market participants generally expect a strong harvest.
Favourable weather during the main harvesting period has supported collection and drying operations, while early quality assessments have been positive.
The growing availability of US hazelnuts is increasing the country’s importance in international markets.
According to a September 2026 industry report from ofi, Oregon-origin offers were approximately US$0.40–0.50/kg below comparable Turkish-origin material at that time.
The expansion of US production is therefore contributing to greater international competition, particularly in the industrial kernel market.
Chile: Continued Expansion and Growing International Importance
Chile has developed into one of the world’s most important hazelnut-producing countries.
Production is concentrated in central and southern Chile, particularly the Maule, Ñuble and La Araucanía regions.
According to the INC’s May forecast, Chilean production was expected to reach approximately 120,000 metric tonnes in 2026, broadly unchanged from the previous year.
A September market update from ofi subsequently estimated the crop at around 125,000 tonnes.
Chile’s expansion has been driven by commercial orchard development, favourable growing conditions and considerable investment in processing infrastructure.
The country benefits from its Southern Hemisphere harvest calendar, with new-season hazelnuts generally becoming available from March onwards.
This provides an additional seasonal supply window for international processors traditionally dependent on Northern Hemisphere harvests.
Outlook for the 2027 Harvest
Chile’s planted area continues to expand, and younger orchards are gradually reaching commercial maturity.
Further production growth is therefore possible during the coming years.
However, industry reports have highlighted concerns about excessive rainfall and unfavourable pollination conditions in parts of the growing region.
These factors may influence the 2027 harvest, although it remains too early to determine the final impact.
Chile’s continued expansion is closely linked to long-term investments by major industrial consumers, particularly Ferrero, whose role in the international hazelnut industry is examined separately below.
Italy: Regional Differences Limit the Recovery
Italy remains one of Europe’s most important hazelnut producers, with cultivation concentrated in Piedmont, Lazio, Campania and Sicily.
Italian hazelnuts are particularly significant for premium confectionery applications, where specific varieties are valued for their flavour, roasting characteristics and processing performance.
Following the poor 2025 harvest, the INC initially forecast Italian production to recover to approximately 90,000 metric tonnes in 2026/27.
However, production conditions have differed considerably between regions.
In September, the Italian agricultural organisation Coldiretti estimated the national crop at approximately 75,000 tonnes, around 10% above 2025 but still below the country’s potential production of approximately 100,000 tonnes.
Piedmont and Lazio generally reported more encouraging conditions, while Campania experienced greater difficulties.
Drought, pest pressure and premature nut drop have affected yields in several producing areas.
More recent reports from Piedmont indicate improved availability compared with 2025, although production remains below historical averages.
The resulting supply situation is therefore mixed, with quality and regional origin continuing to play an important role in pricing.
Azerbaijan: Production Growth, but Quality Remains Important
Azerbaijan has established itself as a significant supplier of hazelnut kernels to international markets.
Production is concentrated in the northern and northwestern regions of the country.
The INC initially forecast production of approximately 65,000 metric tonnes in 2026/27, compared with 60,000 tonnes in the previous season.
The country’s industry has benefited from investment in commercial plantations, processing facilities and export infrastructure.
However, unsettled weather during the 2026 harvest has raised concerns about drying conditions and kernel quality.
Although weather conditions improved during September, the final availability of export-quality material will depend on processing and sorting results.
Azerbaijan remains an established alternative origin for conventional hazelnut kernels used in industrial applications.
Georgia: Lower Harvest and Reduced Kernel Yields
Georgia remains an important regional producer and exporter, supplying hazelnut kernels primarily to European and international markets.
The INC’s initial forecast suggested production of approximately 45,000 metric tonnes for 2026/27, broadly unchanged from the previous season.
However, more recent industry assessments indicate a more difficult harvest.
In September, the Georgian Hazelnut Producers Association reported that national production could fall below 40,000 tonnes, following heavy rainfall, increased pest pressure and harvesting difficulties.
Kernel recovery has also deteriorated.
According to the association, average kernel yields have fallen below 30%, compared with approximately 35–37% in previous seasons.
Consequently, Georgian kernel exports could decline to approximately 10,000–12,000 tonnes, compared with 16,000–17,000 tonnes in the previous year.
This development illustrates how a relatively modest change in total in-shell production can result in a considerably larger reduction in commercially available kernels.
China: Increasing Domestic Production
China is gradually expanding its domestic hazelnut industry.
The INC initially projected Chinese production of approximately 100,000 metric tonnes in 2026/27, compared with 88,000 tonnes in the previous season.
However, Chinese hazelnut production includes different types and varieties, and not all domestic production is directly comparable with European hazelnuts used in industrial confectionery applications.
Growing domestic supply may nevertheless influence the country’s import requirements and international purchasing activity.
China’s increasing production capacity represents another factor contributing to the geographical diversification of the global hazelnut industry.
Spain and France: Smaller European Producers
Spain and France remain smaller but established hazelnut origins.
In Spain, production is concentrated primarily in Catalonia, particularly the Tarragona region.
The INC initially forecast Spanish production at approximately 10,530 metric tonnes, representing a recovery from 7,500 tonnes in the previous season.
French production was estimated at approximately 9,500 tonnes, compared with 9,000 tonnes in 2025/26.
Both countries face challenges related to climate variability, orchard management costs and competition from larger producing regions.
Their market importance is particularly evident in regional food industries and applications where European origin, traceability and specific product characteristics are valued.
Digression: Ferrero’s Influence on Global Hazelnut Production and Supply
Ferrero, the Italian confectionery manufacturer behind Nutella, Ferrero Rocher and Kinder products, occupies a significant position in the global hazelnut industry.
The company’s influence extends well beyond purchasing hazelnuts for confectionery production.
Through the Ferrero Hazelnut Company, its subsidiaries and international agricultural operations, the group is directly involved in orchard development, procurement, processing, agricultural research and supply chain management.
Ferrero identifies Turkey, Italy, Chile and the United States as its main hazelnut sourcing countries.
Its international activities illustrate a broader structural development in the food industry: major manufacturers are increasingly investing directly in agricultural production and processing infrastructure to secure long-term raw material supplies.
Chile: Building a Major New Hazelnut Origin
Chile provides one of the clearest examples of Ferrero’s influence on the development of a producing country.
Through its subsidiary AgriChile, Ferrero has participated in the development of Chile’s commercial hazelnut industry for more than three decades.
The company combines its own agricultural operations with purchases from independent producers, technical support and investments in processing facilities.
In May 2024, Ferrero inaugurated a second hazelnut processing plant in Ñiquén, Ñuble Region.
The facility represented an investment of approximately US$75 million and was designed with an initial processing capacity of 40,000 metric tonnes of in-shell hazelnuts annually.
At that time, Ferrero reported cumulative investments in Chile of approximately US$330 million.
Further expansion was announced in May 2026, when Ferrero Hazelnut Company confirmed a planned US$94 million investment to strengthen its Chilean operations and develop a new processing facility in Cunco, La Araucanía.
According to subsequent company information, completion of the new facility is planned towards the end of 2027.
These investments demonstrate Chile’s strategic importance within Ferrero’s international supply network.
By combining Southern Hemisphere production with Northern Hemisphere sourcing, Ferrero can improve seasonal flexibility and access to fresh raw materials.
Its investment in processing infrastructure has also contributed to the development of commercial hazelnut production in Chile and the establishment of relationships with local growers.
Turkey: Procurement and Processing Integration
Turkey remains a central origin for Ferrero’s international hazelnut requirements.
An important milestone was Ferrero’s acquisition of the Turkish Oltan Group in 2014.
Oltan was an established hazelnut procurement and processing company with extensive operations in Turkey.
The acquisition strengthened Ferrero’s direct involvement in the Turkish hazelnut supply chain.
Ferrero also operates grower programmes focusing on agricultural practices, traceability and social standards.
Given the company’s substantial purchasing requirements, its procurement decisions can influence demand for specific hazelnut qualities and the timing of market purchases.
During the 2026 season, industry reports indicated that Ferrero had contracted approximately 20,000–22,000 tonnes of kernels from Turkish exporters.
These figures are trade estimates rather than independently confirmed company disclosures.
Italy: Traditional Supply and Specialised Quality
Ferrero’s relationship with hazelnuts dates back to its foundation in Alba, Piedmont, in 1946.
The company sources Italian hazelnuts from regions including Piedmont, Lazio and Campania.
Italian varieties are important for specific confectionery applications due to their flavour characteristics and processing properties.
Ferrero also participates in agricultural research and initiatives aimed at improving quality, productivity and traceability.
However, the company’s raw material requirements extend well beyond Italian domestic production, making diversified international sourcing essential.
United States: Increasing Purchases from Oregon
Ferrero has also expanded its sourcing activities in the United States.
The company has confirmed increasing purchases of Oregon hazelnuts, including material used at its manufacturing facility in Brantford, Ontario, Canada.
Oregon’s growing production capacity, modern orchard structure and established processing industry make the region an increasingly relevant supplier for industrial hazelnut applications.
Other Regions: Georgia, Serbia and Argentina
Ferrero also operates agricultural development projects and demonstration farms in Georgia, Serbia and Argentina.
These activities support agricultural research, grower training and the development of production practices suited to different climates and growing conditions.
They form part of a broader strategy to diversify geographical sourcing and support long-term raw material availability.
Market Implications of Ferrero’s Vertical Integration
Ferrero’s activities influence the international hazelnut market in several ways.
First, long-term investments in agricultural production and processing contribute to the development of new producing origins, particularly Chile.
Second, procurement across both hemispheres helps diversify seasonal supply and reduce dependence on individual harvests.
Third, direct involvement in processing and agricultural development can strengthen quality control and supply chain traceability.
Finally, the growing role of vertically integrated industrial buyers can affect the structure of the merchant market.
As major processors secure increasing volumes through their own operations and long-term supplier relationships, the amount of freely traded material may develop differently from overall national production.
Ferrero’s exact share of global hazelnut purchases is not consistently disclosed, and its market influence cannot reliably be expressed as a single percentage.
Nevertheless, its activities represent an important factor in the long-term development of the international hazelnut supply chain.
Global Hazelnut Market Outlook: More Supply, but Not Necessarily Lower Prices
The 2026/27 season is bringing a recovery in global hazelnut production following the supply shortages of 2025.
However, the market situation differs considerably between producing countries.
Turkey is harvesting a larger crop, but quality concerns and lower kernel recovery are reducing the expected increase in marketable supply.
The United States is reporting favourable harvest conditions and growing export availability.
Italy and Georgia are recovering less strongly than initially anticipated, while Azerbaijan is dealing with quality-related challenges.
Chile continues to expand its production capacity and processing infrastructure, strengthening its position as an important Southern Hemisphere origin.
At the same time, the procurement strategies of major industrial consumers, including Ferrero, are influencing the geographical structure of global supply.
What Will Determine Prices in the Coming Months?
Several factors will be particularly important:
- Turkish kernel recovery: Lower yields and additional sorting requirements could reduce the quantity of commercially available kernels.
- Government intervention: TMO purchasing activity may influence Turkish market availability and price formation.
- Industrial demand: Purchasing activity from major confectionery manufacturers will remain important for global consumption.
- Alternative origins: Increasing production in Oregon and Chile could strengthen international competition.
- Product specifications: Prices may differ considerably between raw kernels, roasted kernels, blanched kernels, chopped hazelnuts and paste.
- Inventory development: Carryover stocks and the pace of new-season purchases will influence supply-demand balances.
Outlook for 2027
Global hazelnut production is becoming increasingly diversified.
Although Turkey remains the dominant supplier, investments in Chile, the United States and other producing regions are gradually changing the geographical structure of the industry.
The 2026/27 season demonstrates that total production volume alone is not sufficient to assess actual market availability.
Kernel yields, quality characteristics, processing capacity and procurement strategies are becoming increasingly important.
Overall, the global hazelnut market appears better supplied than in 2025. However, quality-related shortages and concentrated industrial demand could continue to create price differences between origins and product specifications.
The final development of prices and availability will depend on actual harvest results, export flows and purchasing activity during the remainder of the 2026/27 season.
Sources & References
Information available as of October 22, 2026.
1. International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) / Mundus Agri – May 2026
Hazelnuts: Big Twist in Production. Global production forecasts for the 2026/27 season.
https://www.mundus-agri.eu/news/hazelnuts-big-twist-production.n37202.html
2. Hazelnut Growers of Oregon – September 30, 2026
Fall 2026 Global Hazelnut Report. Regional harvest developments in Turkey, Italy, Oregon, Chile, Georgia and Azerbaijan.
https://hazelnut.com/global-hazelnut-report-2/
3. Hazelnut Growers of Oregon – September 29, 2026
Oregon’s 2026 Crop Is Shaping Up Strong. US harvest estimates and quality conditions.
https://hazelnut.com/oregons-2026-crop-is-shaping-up-strong/
4. International Nut and Dried Fruit Council – September 10, 2026
Türkiye’s TMO Raises Purchase Prices for 2026/27 Hazelnut Season.
https://inc.nutfruit.org/turkiyes-tmo-raises-purchase-prices-for-2026-27-hazelnut-season/
5. FreshPlaza – October 19, 2026
Turkish Hazelnut Prices Fall as Kernel Yields Drop Below 40%.
https://www.freshplaza.com/latin-america/article/9884259/turkish-hazelnut-prices-fall-as-kernel-yields-drop-below-40/
6. ofi – September 2026
Global Market & Crop Update. International production, demand and origin price developments.
https://shop.ofi.com/nuts-by-ofi-marketreport-september-2026
7. ANSA / Coldiretti – September 6, 2026
Italian Hazelnut Production Up 10%, but Drought and Pests Remain Challenges.
https://www.ansa.it/canale_terraegusto/notizie/prodotti_tipici/2026/09/06/nocciole-produzione-10-ma-pesano-siccita-e-parassiti-incognita-prezzi_884c03e1-07de-4fc6-b976-0abcaefec350.html
8. BM.ge – September 22, 2026
Georgia’s Hazelnut Harvest Expected to Fall Below 40,000 Tons.
https://bm.ge/en/news/georgias-hazelnut-harvest-expected-to-fall-below-40000-tons
9. Ferrero Group – Hazelnut Sourcing
Official overview of Ferrero’s global sourcing regions, agricultural operations and traceability initiatives.
https://www.ferrero.com/int/en/people-planet/source-our-ingredients-sustainably/hazelnuts
10. Ferrero Group – June 2024
Ferrero Inaugurates Second Hazelnut Processing Plant in Chile.
https://www.ferrero.com/cono/en/noticias-e-historias/noticias/ferrero-inauguro-segunda-planta-de-procesamiento-de-avellanas-con-una-inversi%C3%B3n-de-75-millones-de-d%C3%B3lares
11. Ferrero Hazelnut Company / AgriChile – May 15, 2026
Ferrero Reaffirms Long-Term Investment in Chile. Announcement of the Cunco processing project.
https://www.ferrerohazelnutcompany.com/agrichile/es/node/280
12. Ferrero Hazelnut Company / AgriChile – August 2026
Development of Hazelnut Production in La Araucanía. Further information on the planned Cunco facility.
https://www.ferrerohazelnutcompany.com/agrichile/es/node/284
13. Ferrero Group – Hazelnut Sourcing and Agrifarms
Information on agricultural operations in Chile, Argentina, Georgia and Serbia.
https://