K-SALES MARKET INSIGHTS | OCTOBER 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Australia’s recovering harvest, expanding African production and uncertainty surrounding Chinese demand are shaping the global macadamia market.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n The global macadamia market is entering the final quarter of 2026 with a significantly improved supply outlook. Following the production shortages and firm prices of 2025, harvest volumes have recovered across several major producing regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n South Africa is reporting a particularly strong crop, Australia is recovering from a difficult previous season, and production in Kenya and other African origins continues to expand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC), global macadamia production was initially forecast to increase by approximately 17% in 2026, reaching almost 393,000 metric tonnes of nut-in-shell (NIS) at 3.5% moisture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, the key question is whether international demand can absorb the additional supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n South Africa remains one of the world’s most important macadamia suppliers and is experiencing a particularly strong production year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The South African Macadamia Growers’ Association (SAMAC) initially forecast a 2026 crop of approximately 93,000 metric tonnes NIS. More recent industry reports suggest that actual production could approach 100,000 tonnes, compared with approximately 81,100 tonnes in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The increase reflects favourable production conditions and the growing contribution of younger orchards reaching commercial maturity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n While additional supply improves international availability, it is creating challenges for growers and processors. Rising inventories and subdued purchasing activity are contributing to downward price pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n South African processors are also expanding their cracking and processing capacity, supporting the production of kernels, roasted products and other value-added macadamia ingredients.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Australia’s 2026 macadamia harvest is recovering significantly from the weather-related production difficulties experienced in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In July, the Australian Macadamia Society revised its crop forecast to 56,888 metric tonnes NIS at 3.5% moisture<\/strong>, equivalent to approximately 61,000 tonnes at 10% moisture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Although slightly below the initial March forecast, this represents a substantial recovery compared with the 2025 crop of 43,800 tonnes at 3.5% moisture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Harvest performance has varied between growing regions, individual farms and macadamia varieties. Some orchards are still recovering from several consecutive wet seasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Australia continues to benefit from a well-developed processing industry, established quality systems and strong international customer relationships.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Higher production is expected to improve supply availability compared with 2025, although the market situation may differ between kernel grades and specifications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Kenya has developed into one of Africa’s largest macadamia producers and remains an important origin for international kernel buyers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Recent industry estimates place the 2026 harvest at approximately 54,500 metric tonnes<\/strong>, representing growth of around 5% compared with the previous season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Increasing orchard maturity is supporting production, although heavy rainfall during harvesting can complicate drying and post-harvest handling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Kenya’s export industry consists of processors with differing levels of integration and technical capacity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The country’s growing production and processing capabilities are strengthening its role in the global kernel market, particularly for industrial applications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Beyond South Africa and Kenya, other African producing countries are gradually increasing their presence in international macadamia trade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Malawi is among the more established origins. Early 2026 industry estimates indicated production of approximately 11,000 metric tonnes NIS<\/strong>, up around 10% from the previous season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Zimbabwe and Mozambique are also part of the broader regional supply landscape, although reliable and comparable 2026 production data remain limited.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The expansion of plantations and processing facilities could gradually increase export availability from these origins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As more orchards reach commercial maturity, Southern Africa’s overall importance in global macadamia supply is expected to increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n China plays a dual role in the global macadamia industry: it is both a major producing country and a key destination for imported nuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Early 2026 estimates projected Chinese macadamia production at approximately 108,000 metric tonnes NIS<\/strong>, compared with 98,000 tonnes in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This expansion is increasingly important for international suppliers, particularly those traditionally dependent on Chinese demand for in-shell macadamias.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Growing domestic production strengthens competition with imported nuts and could affect demand for macadamias from Australia and Africa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Chinese purchasing activity will therefore remain an important factor in determining the international supply-demand balance during the final quarter of 2026 and into 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The 2026 macadamia market is increasingly characterised by ample supply and cautious purchasing activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n September market reports indicate that falling kernel prices and growing inventories are putting suppliers under pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Several European buyers reportedly have substantial purchasing coverage extending into the first half of 2027, reducing immediate purchasing requirements.<\/p>\n\n\n\nSouth Africa: Record Production Creates Price Pressure<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Australia: Strong Recovery Despite Regional Differences<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Kenya: Expanding Production Strengthens Export Potential<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Malawi and Southern Africa: Smaller Origins with Growth Potential<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
China: Growing Domestic Production Influences Global Demand<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Global Market Outlook: More Supply, Softer Prices<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
2026 Production Outlook<\/h3>\n\n\n\n