The global pecan market is entering the 2026\/27 season with expectations of increasing production and changing international trade patterns. While the United States and Mexico continue to dominate global supply, South Africa is rapidly expanding its production and export volumes. At the same time, Brazil, Peru and Argentina are gaining importance as emerging Southern Hemisphere suppliers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC), global pecan production was forecasted in July 2026 to reach approximately 336,600 metric tonnes on an in-shell basis, an increase of 6.5% compared with the previous season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Including carryover inventories, total global supply was projected at approximately 353,660 tonnes, up around 7% year-on-year. These estimates remain preliminary, with more recent regional reports indicating that production in certain countries could exceed earlier forecasts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In addition to harvest volumes, changing import duties, growing Chinese demand for Southern Hemisphere pecans and European food safety requirements are influencing the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
United States: Improved Harvest Prospects for 2026<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
The United States remains one of the world’s largest pecan producers, with major growing regions in Georgia, New Mexico, Texas and Arizona.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The INC’s July 2026 estimate projected US production at approximately 130,000 metric tonnes in-shell, broadly in line with the previous year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, more recent industry assessments suggest a stronger crop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the September meeting of the National Pecan Shellers Association (NPSA), industry participants estimated the 2026 US crop at approximately 156,700 metric tonnes across all producing states. When adjusted to the five-state methodology commonly used in USDA comparisons, the estimate corresponds to approximately 145,000 tonnes, an increase of 12.2% over 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The positive outlook reflects expectations of improved production, although the final harvest will depend on weather conditions, nut quality and actual harvested volumes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the demand side, the US market has shown signs of weakness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to the American Pecan Council’s July 2026 market analysis, estimated domestic utilisation declined by 32% year-on-year during July, while outstanding commitments were approximately 15% below the previous year’s level on an in-shell basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Inventory data nevertheless show a mixed picture, with reported shelled pecan stocks differing depending on the data source.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The combination of improved crop prospects and cautious purchasing activity could increase supply availability during the opening months of the 2026\/27 season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Mexico: Production Recovery Following Difficult Seasons<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Mexico remains one of the world’s leading pecan producers and a major supplier to international markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Production is concentrated in northern states, particularly Chihuahua, Coahuila, Sonora and Durango.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In recent years, prolonged drought and limited irrigation water have affected yields in several production regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The INC’s July forecast projected Mexican production at approximately 120,000 metric tonnes for 2026\/27, compared with 116,500 tonnes in the previous season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A more recent September estimate from the Mexican Pecan Council (COMNUEZ) projects approximately 115,000 tonnes, representing an increase of around 15% compared with its 2025 harvest estimate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Although the forecasts differ because of their respective methodologies and reference estimates, both indicate expectations of improving production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Mexico plays an important role in the North American processing industry, with substantial trade in raw pecans and kernels between Mexico and the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
International trade developments are also becoming more significant. China’s anti-dumping measures affecting Mexican and US pecans could encourage exporters to develop alternative markets, including Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
South Africa: Record Harvest and Strong Chinese Demand<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
South Africa continues to strengthen its position as a major supplier of pecans, particularly to the Chinese in-shell market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The country’s production has expanded significantly as commercial orchards planted during the past decade reach maturity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to the South African Pecan Nut Producers Association (SAPPA), participating processors had received approximately 57,719 metric tonnes by week 36 of 2026, compared with 48,524 tonnes at the same stage in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This represents an increase of approximately 19% and the highest volume recorded at that stage over the preceding five seasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In-shell exports reached approximately 41,691 tonnes, up 14% year-on-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Quality indicators have also been favourable. Approximately 93% of exported in-shell pecans achieved a kernel percentage above 55%, while around 90% were classified as Large or above.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
China remains the dominant export destination. According to a September 2026 USDA report, more than 97% of South Africa’s in-shell pecan exports are destined for China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The introduction of zero-duty access for South African pecans to China on May 1, 2026, has further strengthened the country’s competitive position. Meanwhile, anti-dumping duties affecting US and Mexican pecans have increased South Africa’s relative trade advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, this strong dependence on the Chinese market also makes the industry particularly sensitive to changes in Chinese purchasing activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For shelled pecans, the European market presents a different situation. The EU’s maximum nickel level of 3.5 mg\/kg, applicable since July 2025, has introduced additional compliance requirements and is expected to affect South African kernel exports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
China: A Major Import Market with Growing Domestic Production<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
China is one of the most influential markets for international pecan trade, particularly for in-shell products.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Domestic pecan cultivation is also expanding as newly established orchards reach commercial production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The INC’s July 2026 forecast projected Chinese pecan production at approximately 11,700 metric tonnes, compared with 6,200 tonnes in 2025\/26.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Although domestic production remains small compared with the United States and Mexico, the projected increase is significant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
China’s purchasing decisions continue to shape international supply flows, particularly from South Africa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Recent changes in import duties have strengthened the competitive position of South African pecans while making US and Mexican products less attractive under certain trading conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The development of domestic Chinese production, combined with changes in import demand, will therefore remain an important factor for global pecan availability and prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Brazil: Strong Production Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Brazil is emerging as an increasingly important pecan-producing country, with cultivation concentrated in its southern regions, particularly Rio Grande do Sul.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to the INC’s July 2026 estimates, Brazilian pecan production is forecast to reach approximately 10,000 metric tonnes in 2026\/27, compared with 3,500 tonnes in the previous season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If achieved, this would represent an exceptionally large year-on-year increase, supported by expanding production and maturing orchards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Brazil remains considerably smaller than the established North American producers, but its growing production capacity could increase export availability in the coming years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As with other Southern Hemisphere origins, the harvest calendar provides additional seasonal supply to international markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, the significant increase projected for 2026 should be treated cautiously until final harvest figures become available.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Peru: Rapid Production Growth and New Export Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Peru is an emerging pecan supplier, with production concentrated in the coastal region of Ica.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to Peru’s Ministry of Agrarian Development and Irrigation (MIDAGRI), pecan production in Ica increased by approximately 112% during the first six months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In June alone, production was reported to have increased by 177% year-on-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ica is Peru’s main pecan-producing region and is known for large-sized nuts, including the Mahan variety.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Peruvian pecan exports have also increased considerably.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to FreshFruit, exports reached approximately 191 metric tonnes in 2025, with a value of US$1.3 million, compared with just 46 tonnes in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
An important development was the opening of the Chinese market. In September 2025, Peru exported its first commercial shipment of approximately 25 tonnes of pecans to China following the establishment of phytosanitary market access.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Other reported export destinations include Germany, France and Hong Kong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite this progress, Peru remains a relatively small participant in international pecan trade, and export availability is still limited compared with the established producing countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nevertheless, increasing production in irrigated coastal areas and expanding access to international markets could strengthen Peru’s position as a Southern Hemisphere supplier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A reliable national production forecast for Peru in 2026\/27 is not yet available, and the reported production growth in Ica should not be interpreted as a nationwide increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Argentina: Gradual Expansion of Commercial Production<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Argentina is developing its pecan industry through expanding commercial orchards and investments in processing infrastructure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Production is concentrated in several regions, including Entre R\u00edos, Buenos Aires and northeastern Argentina.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to the INC, Argentine production is forecast at approximately 3,300 metric tonnes in 2026\/27, an increase of around 10% compared with the previous season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Although Argentina remains a relatively small producer, increasing orchard maturity could support gradual export growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The country’s Southern Hemisphere harvest calendar provides an additional sourcing window for international buyers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Australia: Small but Established Producer<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Australia remains a comparatively small pecan-producing country, with an established industry serving domestic and selected international markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The INC forecasts production of approximately 3,400 metric tonnes in 2026\/27, slightly below the previous season’s estimated 3,600 tonnes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Although Australian output represents only a small share of global production, it contributes to the geographical diversification of international pecan supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Global Pecan Production Outlook 2026\/27<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
INC July 2026 forecast \u00b7 Metric tonnes, in-shell basis<\/p>\n\n\n\n
035.00070.000105.000140.000USAMexicoSouth AfricaChinaBrazilAustraliaArgentinaOther<\/p>\n\n\n\n