K-SALES MARKET INSIGHTS | OCTOBER 22, 2026
Lower crop yields in West Africa, rising processing costs in Vietnam and strong demand for premium kernels are shaping the international cashew market.
The global cashew market is entering the final quarter of 2026 with tighter raw material availability, elevated processing costs and increasing price differences between kernel grades.
Although cashew production has expanded considerably over the past decade, the 2026 season has been challenging for several major producing origins.
According to ofi’s September 2026 market report, the Northern Hemisphere cashew harvest was approximately 10–12% smaller than in 2025, with both production volumes and raw nut quality below the previous year’s levels.
Average kernel outturns were estimated to be 2.0–2.5 pounds lower than in 2025, reducing the amount of marketable kernels that processors can obtain from the same quantity of raw cashew nuts.
Meanwhile, Vietnam remains the dominant international processing and exporting centre, while Côte d’Ivoire, Cambodia and Tanzania play increasingly important roles in global raw cashew nut supply.
The market is characterised by a notable difference between relatively firm raw material costs and the limited willingness of some international buyers to accept higher kernel prices.
Côte d’Ivoire: Lower Quality and Growing Domestic Processing
Côte d’Ivoire remains one of the world’s largest producers of raw cashew nuts (RCN).
Production reached approximately 1.55 million metric tonnes in 2025, according to figures attributed to the country’s cashew industry regulator. Around 600,000 tonnes were reportedly processed domestically.
The 2026 season has been more challenging.
Unfavourable weather and lower-than-expected kernel outturns have affected raw nut quality, while international processors have faced increasing competition for suitable material.
According to ofi, arrivals of Ivorian raw cashew nuts in Vietnam and India have shown higher defect levels and lower kernel recovery than in the previous season.
The Ivorian government established a minimum farmgate price of 400 CFA francs per kilogram for the 2026 marketing campaign, compared with 425 CFA francs in 2025.
The government is also promoting domestic processing to capture a greater share of the value generated by the cashew industry.
As local processing capacity increases, a larger proportion of Ivorian production could be converted into kernels within the country rather than exported as raw nuts.
This development may gradually change international trade flows, particularly the quantities available to Vietnamese and Indian processors.
Vietnam: The World’s Leading Cashew Processing Hub Faces Margin Pressure
Vietnam continues to dominate the international cashew kernel trade.
Its processing industry relies heavily on imported raw cashew nuts, particularly from Cambodia and West Africa.
The country has developed extensive industrial infrastructure for shelling, peeling, grading and packing cashew kernels for international food manufacturers and retailers.
Despite challenging raw material conditions, Vietnamese cashew exports have continued to expand.
Trade data analysed by Le Duong Cashew indicate that Vietnam’s cashew exports reached approximately 585,000 metric tonnes during January–September 2026, with a reported value of US$4.16 billion.
On a comparable shelled-kernel customs basis, export volume increased by approximately 13.8% compared with the same period in 2025.
However, growing export volumes do not necessarily indicate improving profitability for processors.
Raw nut replacement costs remain elevated, particularly for material offering good kernel recovery and low defect rates.
Some processors are facing difficulties maintaining margins because previously contracted kernel selling prices do not fully reflect higher raw material costs.
Industry reports indicate that certain processing facilities have temporarily reduced operations as a result.
Cashew Kernel Prices in October 2026
Vietnamese FOB quotations illustrate the firming trend in whole-kernel grades.
| Grade | 7 October 2026 | 19 October 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| WW180 | Not quoted | US$9.85/kg |
| WW240 | US$8.00/kg | US$8.05/kg |
| WW320 | US$7.15/kg | US$7.15/kg |
Source: SVC Group, indicative FOB Ho Chi Minh City quotations. These are individual supplier indications, not an official global market index. Actual prices depend on specifications, supplier, volumes and shipment terms.
The figures show that the W320 benchmark remained relatively stable in October, while larger whole-kernel grades continued to command substantial premiums.
The availability of premium kernels remains particularly sensitive to raw nut quality and processing yields.
Cambodia: A Major Raw Cashew Supplier with Expanding Production
Cambodia has become one of the world’s most important raw cashew nut suppliers, largely through its close relationship with Vietnam’s processing industry.
Commercial production has expanded rapidly, supported by increasing cultivation and the development of high-yielding varieties.
The Cambodian M23 variety is particularly important because of its relatively large nuts and commercial kernel recovery characteristics.
According to the Cashew Nut Association of Cambodia (CAC), raw cashew exports exceeded one million metric tonnes during the first half of 2026, with an estimated value of approximately US$1.75 billion.
Most of these raw nuts were shipped to Vietnam for processing.
Separate Cambodian Ministry of Commerce statistics reported approximately 723,814 tonnes of cashew exports during the first nine months of 2026, valued at US$1.17 billion. The two reported datasets are not directly comparable and should not be combined into a single national total without reconciling their coverage and methodologies.
Despite its substantial raw nut production, Cambodia continues to process only a small proportion domestically.
Investment in local processing capacity is therefore becoming an important strategic priority.
The Cambodian industry is seeking to expand kernel exports directly to international markets, reducing its dependence on Vietnam.
Looking ahead to 2027, weather risks could become more important. The Cashew Nut Association of Cambodia has warned that potentially hotter and drier conditions could affect flowering, orchard development and future yields.
Tanzania: The New Harvest Becomes a Key Market Factor
Tanzania is one of the most important cashew producers in East Africa and a major supplier of raw nuts to processors in India and Vietnam.
Unlike West Africa and Cambodia, Tanzania’s harvest generally begins in the final quarter of the calendar year.
This makes the Tanzanian crop particularly important for international processors seeking additional raw material after the Northern Hemisphere harvests have concluded.
The 2026/27 marketing season officially opened in October, with auctions organised through the country’s cooperative marketing system.
Production expectations remain substantial, although industry forecasts vary considerably.
ofi’s September report suggested a harvest of approximately 550,000 metric tonnes, broadly comparable with the previous season.
Other industry estimates have indicated higher potential volumes, while some official ambitions have been considerably more optimistic.
Early October auctions have reportedly attracted firm buying interest, reflecting the limited availability of high-quality raw cashew nuts from other origins.
Tanzania is especially relevant for processors seeking raw material suitable for producing large whole kernels.
The combination of harvest volume, kernel outturn and auction prices will influence the raw material cost structure of cashew processors during the coming months.
India: Strong Domestic Consumption Supports Premium Grades
India remains one of the world’s largest cashew-producing and consuming countries.
Its processing industry relies on both domestically harvested raw nuts and imported material from Africa.
Unlike Vietnam, where export markets dominate, India’s cashew industry benefits from substantial domestic consumption.
Demand is particularly strong for whole kernels used in traditional sweets, premium snacks, confectionery and gift products.
The festive season, including Diwali, provides an important period of seasonal purchasing activity.
During September and October 2026, Indian market reports indicated continued demand for premium whole grades, particularly W180, W210 and W240.
The availability of high-quality kernels has been affected by elevated raw nut replacement costs and relatively limited supply.
Indian processors are also competing with Vietnamese buyers for imported raw nuts from Tanzania and West Africa.
This competition can influence international raw cashew prices, particularly when harvest quality is inconsistent.
Ghana, Benin and Guinea-Bissau: Important West African Suppliers
Beyond Côte d’Ivoire, several other West African countries remain important to international raw cashew trade.
Ghana has developed into a significant trading and collection centre. Raw cashew nuts originating in neighbouring countries may also be exported through Ghanaian ports, making export statistics difficult to interpret as domestic production figures.
Benin remains an established producer and exporter, with efforts to expand domestic processing capacity.
Guinea-Bissau is particularly dependent on cashew exports as a source of agricultural income and foreign exchange.
Across these origins, the 2026 season has been characterised by varying production conditions and quality challenges.
International reports indicate that some raw nut shipments from West Africa have delivered lower kernel outturns than in 2025.
These quality differences are increasingly relevant for processors, as raw material prices alone do not determine the actual cost of producing finished kernels.
Mozambique: An Important Southern Hemisphere Supplier
Mozambique is another established African cashew-producing country, with production concentrated in northern provinces such as Nampula and Zambézia.
Its harvest calendar provides an additional sourcing window during the final months of the year.
Mozambique supplies raw cashew nuts to international processors while also developing its domestic processing industry.
For the 2026/27 season, market participants are monitoring the development of local reference prices, weather conditions and export availability.
As with Tanzania, raw nut quality and the pace of harvesting will influence the amount of material becoming available to international markets.
Mozambique’s role is particularly relevant when other producing countries experience lower yields or supply shortages.
China: Growing Demand for Large Whole Kernels
China has become an increasingly important destination for Vietnamese cashew kernels.
Demand is particularly relevant for large whole grades such as W180, W210 and W240, which are used in premium snack and retail applications.
According to market reports published in September and October 2026, Chinese purchasing activity has supported demand for larger kernels.
Vietnamese exporters have consequently experienced growing interest in premium grades, contributing to price differences between large whole kernels and more common grades such as W320.
The continued expansion of China’s cashew consumption could influence the allocation of premium kernels between Asian, European and North American markets.
European Market: Stable Demand and Increasing Quality Requirements
Europe remains one of the most important destinations for cashew kernels, particularly for retail snacks, nut mixes, confectionery and food manufacturing.
Vietnam continues to supply a substantial proportion of European demand, while direct imports of African-processed kernels are gradually gaining importance.
European buyers generally require consistent kernel grades, reliable food safety documentation and stable product specifications.
Demand differs considerably between product categories.
Whole kernels such as W240 and W320 are commonly used in retail snack products, while splits and pieces are important for bakery products, confectionery, sauces and industrial applications.
The growing availability of processed kernels from African origins could gradually increase the diversity of international sourcing.
However, differences in processing capacity, quality control and export infrastructure remain important factors in international trade.
Outlook for 2027
Three developments are likely to influence the international cashew market over the coming months.
1. Raw cashew nut availability. Tanzania’s and Mozambique’s new harvests could improve supply, but prices will depend heavily on kernel outturn, competition between processors and actual export volumes.
2. Processing margins. Vietnamese and Indian processors continue to face elevated raw material replacement costs. Limited processing margins could restrict the availability of competitively priced kernels.
3. International consumption. Demand from China, India, Europe and North America will remain important, particularly for premium whole-kernel grades.
Overall, the 2026/27 cashew market is characterised by relatively tight raw material conditions, firm replacement costs and significant differences between kernel grades. The upcoming East African harvests will be particularly important in determining whether supply conditions improve during the first months of 2027.
Sources & References
Market information available as of October 22, 2026.
1. ofi – September 2026 Global Market & Crop Update. Northern Hemisphere crop performance, raw nut quality and global supply conditions. Read ofi market report
2. SVC Group – October 2026 Cashew Market Price Update. Vietnamese FOB kernel quotations by grade, including WW180, WW240 and WW320. Read kernel price update
3. Le Duong Cashew – October 2026 Vietnam Cashew Trade: September and Q3 2026 Review. Export values, shipment volumes and kernel grade distribution. Read Vietnam export report
4. Conseil du Coton et de l’Anacarde – February 2026 2026 Cashew Marketing Campaign. Official Côte d’Ivoire minimum purchasing prices and marketing regulations. Read official announcement
5. Cashew Nut Association of Cambodia – July 2026 Raw Cashew Exports Exceed One Million Tonnes. Cambodian RCN export developments and domestic processing challenges. Read Cambodia market report
6. Fresh News Asia – October 8, 2026 Cambodia Cashew Exports Surge in First Nine Months. Cambodian Ministry of Commerce figures and domestic processing developments. Read trade statistics
7. MAMCU, Tanzania – September 2026 New Cashew Season 2026/27. Official opening of the Tanzanian auction season. Read Tanzania season announcement
8. Certified Origins – October 16, 2026 Cashew Market Report: Rising Replacement Costs and Tightening Forward Cover. International kernel prices, raw nut offers and processing margins. Read October market report
9. Cambodia Cashew Association – September 2026 Cashew Market Shows Mixed Trends as Vietnam Prices Firm and Asian Demand Varies. Demand and trade developments in China, India, Japan and Tanzania. Read international market update